QB · SEA · #14
Through 4 games the rank is QB27, off a QB14 season. Wait for more games before calling it a decline.
Traded from NYJ to CAR (Apr 5, 2021).
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
3,785
Range 3,469–4,083
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection In-season usage moved the score inside this range.
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 total FP
49.8 pts
12.5 PPG
755 pass yds · 7 pass TD · 16 rush yds
Week 6 projection
13.5 pts
@ DEN · floor–ceiling 6.6–20.7
History starts Preseason 2026.
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.99
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×0.99
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Darnold threw for 755 yards and 7 TDs in 2026, ranking QB27 through 4 games. Darnold won Super Bowl LX with Seattle in the 2025 season, but fantasy value slipped as Seattle shifted him into a game-manager role after Week 10 and leaned on defense and the run. 2026 still looks like a starter, not a stash. Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Sam Darnold.
Week 3 Injury Report: Three Young Quarterbacks Down
Week 3 injury report: Jaxson Dart is done for the regular season, Jayden Daniels is doubtful with the same elbow, and Caleb Williams is still week to week.
Sam Darnold "Dodged a Bullet." Here's His Updated Timeline.
Sam Darnold's MRI results are in — the Seahawks say he "dodged a bullet." Here's his return timeline and updated dynasty value after Week 1.
Sam Darnold Is Out for the Rest of Week 1. Here's What We Know.
Sam Darnold is out for the rest of Seattle's Week 1 opener with a right hip injury. Here's what it means for his dynasty value and Drew Lock's outlook.
The Season Is Here — What to Know Before Week 1 Kicks Off
Dynasty and redraft managers, the season starts tonight. Here's every Week 1 storyline, injury tag, and lineup question that matters before kickoff.
Jayden Daniels Missed Half of 2025 — Is He Still a Top-Tier Dynasty QB?
Jayden Daniels played just 7 games in 2025 due to three separate injuries. The latest board keeps him in the QB1 mix — 6,973 DVS, 13th among quarterbacks — with an 18.7-point 2026 projection.
Is T.J. Hockenson Still a Top-5 Dynasty TE?
Kyler Murray just won the Vikings' starting job over J.J. McCarthy. Here's what it means for T.J. Hockenson's dynasty value after two down years.
Is JSN's Breakout Year Real or a Product of Volume?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards, won a Super Bowl, and just signed a $168.6 million extension. Here's why his dynasty value isn't a volume mirage.
Half-PPR points
49.8
PPG
12.5
Rank so far
QB27
Key stats
2026 week shape
1/4 Boom 25%
1/4 Bust 25%
Boom is 20+ half-PPR. Bust is under 5.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QB27so far | 49.8 | 12.5 | 755 | 7 | 16 | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | QB14 | 235.4 | 13.8 | 4048 | 25 | 95 | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB9 | 308.0 | 18.1 | 4319 | 35 | 212 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | QB54 | 23.4 | 2.3 | 297 | 2 | 15 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB35 | 86.3 | 14.4 | 1143 | 7 | 106 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | QB28 | 157.3 | 13.1 | 2527 | 9 | 222 | 5 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | QB32 | 134.0 | 11.2 | 2208 | 9 | 217 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2019 | QB27 | 189.2 | 14.6 | 3024 | 19 | 62 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2018 | QB27 | 168.1 | 12.9 | 2865 | 17 | 135 | 1 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | 8.3 | SF | 55 plays · 53% pass | 195 / 1 TD | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 W4 | 13.3 | LAC | 55 plays · 40% pass | 168 / 2 TD | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 W3 | 27.7Boom | WAS | 64 plays · 72% pass | 379 / 4 TD | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 W1 | 0.5Bust | NE | 46 plays · 52% pass | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the total.
Week 5 Engine grade
Projected 16.1 · scored 8.3 half-PPR · inside the floor–ceiling band. Miss +7.8.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2026, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 96.2% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
99.5%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (3 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2026 season to date · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample Full table
37th of 38
3rd of 38
6th of 38
28th of 38
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.